Market Report March 2025
- Mark
- Apr 28
- 4 min read
Updated: Apr 29
REXIG SUMMARY
Housing Market March 2025: Affordability Improves, but Uncertainty Holds Buyers Back
Homeownership in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) saw modest gains in affordability in March 2025, as both borrowing costs and average home prices edged lower year-over-year. While these conditions have created more opportunity for buyers, overall market activity remained restrained.
Uncertainty surrounding global trade, the approaching federal election, and concerns over job stability continue to weigh on buyer confidence. For many, the decision to purchase is on pause as they wait for clearer economic signals and further reductions in interest rates.
Key Highlights – March 2025
Home Sales:
5,011 homes were sold across the GTA in March, marking a 23.1% decline compared to March 2024. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales also fell month-over-month.
New Listings:
A total of 17,263 new listings hit the market—up 28.6% year-over-year. This continued inventory growth has provided buyers with greater choice and negotiating power.
Pricing Trends:
Average Selling Price: $1,093,254 (↓2.5% YoY)
MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: ↓3.8% YoYMonth-over-month, the HPI Composite declined, while average price remained relatively flat after seasonal adjustment.
Market Insights
While conditions favour buyers, activity remains muted as many households face ongoing affordability constraints. Elevated mortgage rates continue to restrict purchasing power, despite more inventory and softened prices.
At the same time, uncertainty surrounding Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S. and the upcoming federal election is weighing on buyer sentiment. For many, it’s a “wait and see” moment—especially for those concerned about job stability or inflation pressures.
If rate cuts proceed as forecasted and trade issues begin to resolve, the second half of 2025 may see stronger momentum.
Focus on Affordability, Confidence, and Policy
To unlock demand and stabilize the market, key areas of focus include:
Improved access to affordable homeownership and rental options
Economic and policy clarity from all levels of government
Long-term strategies to expand supply, especially mid-density housing
Housing is top-of-mind for Canadians, and solutions must address both short-term affordability and long-term structural gaps in the market.
Future Outlook
The GTA housing market is expected to remain relatively balanced in the months ahead, with buyer demand trailing supply. If mortgage rates decline and economic confidence improves, a more active spring and summer market could emerge.
However, sustained progress on housing affordability will depend on clear leadership, strong policy frameworks, and investments that support a full spectrum of housing types.
REGIONAL SPOTLIGHT // MARCH 2025 Oakville-Milton Region Real Estate Market Report
The latest data from the Oakville-Milton and District Real Estate Board shows that the local housing market faced historic pressure in March 2025, with home sales falling to a 30-year low. Despite an increase in new listings and a build-up of inventory, buyers remained cautious, contributing to one of the sharpest sales declines in the board’s history.
The region’s strong ties to the automotive industry, now impacted by new U.S. tariffs, are creating additional economic uncertainty. With 25% tariffs placed on non-CUSMA compliant vehicles and auto parts, local sentiment has cooled, and potential homebuyers are increasingly adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Although affordability has improved through softer prices, the market is clearly rebalancing, with buyers gaining more negotiating power—but also remaining wary of broader economic risks.
Home Sales Hit 30-Year Low in March 2025
Home Sales: 319 homes sold in March, down 48.6% compared to March 2024.
Historical Comparison: Sales were 61.3% below the 5-year average and 63.2% below the 10-year average for March.
Year-to-Date: 886 homes sold in the first three months of 2025, down 43.7% year-over-year.
Prices Under Pressure
- Average Price: The average price of homes sold in February was $1,039,951—up 4.4% year-over-year.
- Year-to-Date Average Price: $1,043,556, a 2.4% increase from early 2024.
MLS® Home Price Index (HPI):
Overall Benchmark Price: $1,215,200 (↓ 6.6% from March 2024)
Single-Family Homes: $1,461,100 (↓ 5.3%)
Townhouses/Row Units: $862,400 (↓ 3.8%)
Apartments: $626,000 (↓ 3.8%)
More Homes on the Market
- New Listings: 1,049 new listings hit the market in February 2025, up 11% year-over-year—the highest level in over a decade for February.
- Active Listings: 1,695 active residential listings at month-end, up a staggering 77.9% from February 2024.
- Historical Context: Active listings are 81.5% above the 5-year average and 89% above the 10-year average.
- Months of Inventory: 5.1 months, up from 2 months last February and well above the long-term February average of 1.7 months.
Inventory Builds Significantly
New Listings: 1,343 homes listed in March (↑ 15.1% year-over-year)
Historical Context: New listings still 9% below the 5-year average and 10.7% below the 10-year average for March.
Active Listings: 2,305 homes available at month-end (↑ 47.4% year-over-year)
59.1% above the 5-year average
45.4% above the 10-year average
Months of Inventory: 7.2 months, up sharply from 2.5 months a year ago, and well above the long-run March average of 2.3 months.
🏡 With inventory at its highest level in over a decade, buyers now have more options and stronger negotiating power.
What This Means
Oakville-Milton’s real estate market has clearly shifted toward buyers. With rising inventory, falling prices, and cautious demand, conditions are favouring those who are ready and able to purchase—but uncertainty is keeping overall activity muted.
The newly imposed U.S. tariffs add an extra layer of volatility, especially given the region’s economic ties to automotive manufacturing. Until clarity returns on trade and broader economic stability, many buyers are expected to remain patient.
REXIG Summary
Home sales fell dramatically to a 30-year low in March 2025.
Home prices across all property types declined year-over-year.
Active listings surged to their highest March level in over a decade.
The market strongly favours buyers, but economic uncertainty could continue to influence demand through the remainder of 2025.
Read here to read our economic update for last month.
ECONOMIC SPOTLIGHT
NEWS
Navigating the Crosswinds: Canada’s Economy Shows Its Strength
As valued clients of REXIG Realty, we are excited to provide you with our latest Real Estate Market Report
for the Greater Toronto Area & surrounding regions.
Our goal is to keep you informed and empowered with the most up-to-date information to make
informed decisions regarding your real estate investments.
