REXIG SUMMARY Housing Market Insights: Pricing Resilience Amid Sales Slowdown
In October 2023, the GTA faced affordability challenges, resulting in a slight dip in home sales. Despite this, selling prices continued to rise. The region's robust economy and population growth sustained strong housing demand, with a noticeable shift towards rentals. Looking ahead, as mortgage rates trend lower, a swift rebound in home sales is expected, offering optimism for those waiting on the sidelines. // Amidst the market slowdown, the real estate market demonstrated strength with a total of 4,646 reported home sales. Fueled by the GTA's robust economy and record population growth, there was a noticeable and optimistic shift in housing demand towards the rental market. Despite higher borrowing costs, this shift indicates a potential upswing in home sales when mortgage rates trend lower, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of the market. // Despite affordability concerns, the GTA's real estate market showcased resilience in the face of a 5.8% decline in home sales. The continued rise in selling prices exemplifies the market's adaptability, underscoring its capacity to navigate challenges while maintaining a positive trajectory. This resilience hints at a market poised for future opportunities and growth, reinforcing confidence in the GTA's real estate landscape.
REGIONAL SPOTLIGHT // OCTOBER 2023 Guelph Region Real Estate Market Report
In October, Guelph and District Association reported 245 home sales, marking a 4.3% decline from 2022, with sales falling below five and ten-year averages. The year-to-date decrease of 11.3% brings total home sales to 3,001 units. This trend is attributed to cautious buyers wary of potential Bank of Canada rate hikes. The Home Price Index reveals a marginal 0.3% increase in the overall benchmark price to $814,500. Single-family homes rose 0.5% to $909,900, townhouse/row units increased 2.2% to $673,800, and the benchmark apartment price rose 2.6% to $537,300. Despite a 6.9% year-over-year increase in the average October home price to $897,743, the year-to-date average dropped significantly by 10.4% to $899,601. Total October home sales reached $219.9 million, a modest 2.3% increase from 2022. October saw a surge in new residential listings, rising by a remarkable 34.8% to 546, the highest ever recorded. Active residential listings followed suit, soaring by 41.6% to 851 units, marking the highest for October in over five years. With months of inventory rising to 3.5 from 2.3 in October 2022, surpassing the long-run average of 1.8 months, the market reflects increased supply and slowed sales activity. These shifts highlight a dynamic real estate landscape influenced by cautious buyer behaviour and a changing economic climate. Market Outlook As the market sees a shift with increased supply and slowed sales, the challenge remains for potential buyers, influenced by caution in the face of economic uncertainties and potential interest rate changes. The coming months may reveal how these dynamics continue to shape the local real estate landscape.
*Source – Guelph & District Association of REALTORS https://creastats.crea.ca/board/guelph
ECONOMIC SPOTLIGHT Canadian Quarterly GDP // Q4 2023
Recent indicators suggest a moderation in Canadian inflation pressures, with key factors contributing to this trend. In October, lower energy costs and a deceleration in grocery price growth played a significant role in pushing down headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth. This decline reflects a more stabilized economic landscape. When food and energy components are excluded, price growth remains relatively persistent, but there are signs of a gradual easing. The core measures, closely monitored by the Bank of Canada, continue to hover above the 2% inflation target. However, a positive development is observed on a 3-month rolling average basis, suggesting a more stabilized inflationary environment. Notably, the impact of abnormally high inflation is becoming less pervasive, affecting a smaller share of products in the consumer basket. This shift indicates a potential alleviation of the intense inflationary pressures experienced in recent months. Overall, these developments suggest a gradual easing of inflationary forces, providing a more nuanced and positive outlook for the Canadian economy. The Bank of Canada's continued vigilance and adaptive policies will likely play a crucial role in navigating these evolving economic dynamics.
*Source – RBC Economics https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/rbc-inflation-watch/