Market Report June 2025
- Mark
- Jul 31
- 4 min read
REXIG SUMMARY
Housing Market June 2025: Affordability Has Improved
Ownership housing affordability continued to improve across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in June 2025, as both average selling prices and borrowing costs remained below levels seen a year earlier. This trend, combined with a growing number of property listings, created more favourable conditions for buyers. Still, despite some encouraging signs, many households remain hesitant, cautious of a complex economic backdrop that includes trade uncertainty and slower overall growth.
MARKET PERFORMANCE
JUNE 2025
GTA REALTORS® reported 6,243 home sales in June 2025 — a slight 2.4% decline compared to June 2024. Meanwhile, new listings rose 7.7% year-over-year to 19,839, offering greater choice across property types and locations.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales increased month-over-month compared to May, while new listings decreased, further contributing to the tightening seen throughout the spring season.
The average selling price in June reached $1,101,691, down 5.4% year-over-year, while the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down 5.5%. Both measures also dipped slightly compared to May on a seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting continued affordability relief.
Economic Factors and Buyer Sentiment
While affordability has improved significantly over the past year, consumer confidence remains the central obstacle to market acceleration. Many potential buyers are adopting a “wait-and-see” stance, watching closely for progress on trade negotiations, interest rate reductions, and economic stabilization.
A clear trade agreement with the U.S., along with additional rate cuts, could ease financial pressure on households and help solidify the modest gains seen in recent months.
Beyond financial factors, public safety concerns are also beginning to influence housing decisions. Increasing reports of violent incidents, including home invasions and carjackings, are drawing attention to the need for stronger safety measures and reforms to support community confidence.
Balanced, but Cautious Optimism Ahead
The June 2025 data highlights a market in transition: affordability has improved, inventory is rising, and buyers have more negotiating power. However, persistent economic uncertainty and evolving public sentiment are keeping many on the sidelines.
Looking ahead, stronger housing activity will likely depend on a combination of policy clarity, economic stability, and consumer reassurance. Until then, both buyers and sellers would benefit from a strategic, informed approach to navigating today’s market.
Future Outlook
Expect a cautious summer market. If rate cuts materialize and economic sentiment improves, activity could accelerate. For now, buyers have leverage — but only those prepared to act strategically will benefit. Sellers will need to adapt quickly to stay competitive in this shifting landscape.
REGIONAL SPOTLIGHT // JUNE 2025 Oakville Region Real Estate Market Report
Insightful. Strategic. Professional.
At a Glance
Homes Sold: 514 (↓ 12.6% YoY)
New Listings: 1,623 (↑ 3.1% YoY)
Average Price: $1,248,210 (↓ 3.2% YoY)
Benchmark Price: $1,153,000 (↓ 6% YoY)
Active Listings: 2,813 (↑ 19% YoY – 15-year high)
Months of Inventory: 5.5 (↑ from 4.0 last year)
Market Narrative
A Cooler June with More Choice
Oakville’s housing market saw a noticeable slowdown in June 2025, continuing a trend of softened activity across the GTA. Just 514 homes traded hands through the local MLS®, marking a 12.6% drop compared to June 2024 — and placing activity well below both the five- and ten-year historical averages.
While buyer activity eased, new listings climbed, reaching the highest June total in over five years. This continued rise in inventory — now up 19% year-over-year and nearly 50% above the five-year average — has brought balance back to the market, giving buyers considerably more leverage.
Prices Show Gradual Decline
The benchmark price across all home types in Oakville dropped to $1,153,000, down 6% from a year ago. Single-family homes posted a benchmark of $1,391,900, also down 6%, while townhomes and apartments saw slightly larger declines of 6.8% and 5.6%, respectively.
The average selling price for all properties came in at $1,248,210, a modest year-over-year decrease of 3.2%, with the year-to-date average settling at $1,260,756 — down 4.4% from mid-2024.
The Supply-Demand Shift
Inventory is now at levels not seen in over a decade, with active listings surpassing 2,800 units — a clear signal of changing market dynamics. The months of inventory metric rose to 5.5, compared to just 4.0 one year ago, and well above Oakville’s long-term average of 2.7 months.
In short: there’s more choice, more room for negotiation, and less urgency among buyers.
REXIG Watch
Oakville’s market continues to reflect broader regional forces: affordability is improving, but confidence remains cautious for the time being. Borrowing costs have eased, yet economic questions — from trade policy to job security — are causing many would-be buyers to wait and watch.
This deceleration isn’t a crisis — it’s a rebalancing. Sellers are adjusting expectations, and motivated buyers now have room to negotiate more favorable terms. If rate cuts or federal policy shifts materialize in the coming months, we may see more meaningful momentum heading into fall.
The Oakville housing market has entered a phase of deliberate correction. For buyers, this means more opportunity. For sellers, it calls for strategic pricing and preparation. And for investors, now is the time to assess long-term value amidst short-term volatility.
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